This blog collects perspectives on the election you won't find anywhere else, by political experts, based in the School of Politics and International Relations at The University of Nottingham.

Thursday, 6 May 2010

Philip Cowley - reactions to results

The BBC/ITN/Sky exit poll shows no one party with enough seats to form a majority. The Conservatives have done well, putting on almost 100 seats, but not well enough. But - if the exit poll is right - there are also not enough Labour and Lib Dem MPs to form a coalition majority either. Most importantly, however, the poll shows things to be on a knife-edge, and close enough so that any strange results could tip the balance. It promises to be one of the most exciting election nights in living memory.

The first three seats - the three Sunderland seats - have seen turnout rise by about 5 percentage points. If that is repeated across the country, overall turnout will remain below 70%. However, it is perfectly possible that turnout will be more variable, and the increase will be greater elsewhere.

Professor Philip Cowley


  1. Do you think the Tories and LibDems will form a coalition (if the exit poll is correct)? Will the price be a referendum on PR?

  2. What is the margin of error?
    What about postal votes?

  3. In haste (as in Radio 4 studio!): no accepted margin of error. But *excludes* postal votes. About to discuss that...

  4. If the exit poll numbers are correct, Labour and Liberal together have more seats than Conservative, so could join together to form a majority Government.

  5. Do you think that the Scottish vote will save the Labour Government? Or do you think there will be any movement to any of the other parties and who might the party be?

  6. Again in haste: fascinating thing is that Lab+LD STILL isn't enough to form a majority.


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